Is the airplane probability problem difficult?

The Airplane Probability Problem. The following seems like a difficult… | by Brett Berry | Math Hacks | Medium The following seems like a difficult problem, one you might find in an extra credit section of college statistics exam, but don’t be fooled the trickery lies in a common trap.

Are most airline accidents not survivable?

They noted, “Fatal accidents such as TWA flight 800, ValuJet flight 592, and EgyptAir 990 receive extensive media coverage. Nonfatal accidents, however, often receive little coverage. As a result, the public may perceive that most air carrier accidents are not survivable.

What percentage of airplane accidents result in deaths?

A grand total of twenty-four resulted in fatalities, meaning only about 15\% of all accidents in this grouping — which themselves are extremely rare events — actually resulted in lives being lost. (FYI, only five of the fatal 2016 accidents were in the U.S, and none involved a major U.S. air carrier.) Consider four possible outcomes to any crash:

What are the odds of getting the right seat on a plane?

Now if passengers were boarding and simply choosing seats completely at random, then the chance of you getting the correct seat would be 1 divided by the number of seats on the plane. For example, in a plane with 100 seats you’d have 1/100 chance of getting your own seat if everyone was choosing at random.

What is the probability of getting your own seat on a plane?

For example, in a plane with 100 seats you’d have 1/100 chance of getting your own seat if everyone was choosing at random. But under the conditions of this riddle each person is not choosing randomly, they are only choosing at random if their seat is taken.

What are the odds of sitting in your assigned seat?

In two of the scenarios you end up with your designated seat, and in two you don’t. So with 3 passengers you still end up with a 50\% chance of sitting in your assigned seat.??? Passengers